The Reviewer

A small magazine about things that claim to work

Field Notes · Reading a benchmark

What a mean hides: how to read an accuracy figure without being misled by it

±1.1% does not mean your dinner will be within 1.1%. Here is what these numbers actually describe, and the three questions to ask of any of them.

We cite accuracy figures constantly in this magazine, so it is worth explaining what they are and what they are not.

What the number is

These figures are usually a mean absolute percentage error across a set of reference meals. Each meal is weighed and its true content computed; the app estimates it; the difference is recorded as a percentage; the average of those percentages is the figure.

So ±1.1% is a statement about a meal set. It is not a promise about your dinner, and your dinner was not in the meal set.

What that hides

The spread. A mean of 1.1% is compatible with most meals being very close and a few being badly wrong. In both studies we cite, individual plates missed by considerably more than the headline figure. If you photograph one meal and it comes back 15% off, that is consistent with the number rather than a refutation of it.

Composition. An estimator that handles flat plated food well and composite dishes badly scores differently depending on what the tester cooked. This is why the meal set’s contents matter as much as its size, and why methods sections are worth reading.

Failure handling. What did the study do when an app refused to estimate? Excluding those cases flatters an app that declines often. This is buried in methods and it changes results.

The three questions to ask

Who measured it? If the answer is the company selling the product, you have a marketing figure. That is not the same as a false one, but it is not a measurement that should move your decision.

Has anyone reproduced it? A single independent measurement establishes the number is not self-reported. Reproduction by a second, unrelated party on a different meal set establishes the test design was not doing the work. Very little clears the second bar — in consumer nutrition we are aware of one product that has.

What was measured? Photo estimation and manual entry are different operations with different error profiles, and figures for the two are not comparable. An app can be excellent at one and ordinary at the other.

The practical translation

On a 2,000-calorie day:

  • ~1% is about 20 calories. Below the noise of everything else in your week.
  • ~5% is about 100 calories. Detectable over a month, not over a day.
  • ~12% is about 240 calories — roughly the size of a typical daily deficit, which means the measurement error and the effect you are trying to measure are the same magnitude.

That last line is the practical case for caring about this at all. At the loose end of the category you cannot conclude anything from a single week, because the instrument moves as much as the thing being measured.

And the thing the figures do not cover

Your portion estimate. In our own weighing week, our portion errors exceeded every app’s estimation error. The most accurate app in the world applied to a portion you over-poured by 30% gives you a precise number about the wrong food.

Weigh what you can. Estimate what you cannot. Read the figures as descriptions of instruments rather than promises about dinners.

On the record

Every figure above is ours, attributed to a named third party, or the maker's own claim. These are the attributed ones, with their sources.

Inés Okonkwo

Editor

Founded this because product writing had stopped distinguishing between a measurement and a press release. Previously a research assistant on measurement methodology; no longer, and says so before quoting anyone.

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